DG Agri published its annual Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU for the period 2007 through 2014 at the end of July. In this post I discuss the Commission’s latest view on the outlook for the EU sugar market. The EU’s sugar market reform agreed in November 2005 has been less than a thundering success in making progress towards its objective of reducing domestic production by 6 mio tonnes of white sugar annually. White sugar stocks remain high, and success in maintaining market balance through 2014 will depend on the quantity of imports realised under the EBA (Everything But Arms) scheme and the future take up of restructuring aid.… Read the rest
Growth rates for global food demand set to fall
In a previous post, I discussed the significance of the current buoyant markets for dairy products for the likely success in pursuing further reform of the EU dairy regime. The insight that world market conditions may influence the trajectory of CAP reform can also be extended to other CAP regimes. Producers have not been as optimistic regarding long-run price trends for agricultural commodities for many years. Food demand prospects appear bright, driven by population growth and rising incomes in many emerging markets. Non-food demand, particularly for biofuels, is a further positive driver. Many believe that, after many false dawns, we really are on the cusp of reversing the long-run decline in real agricultural prices since the Second World War and entering a Malthusian world.… Read the rest
Irish farmers now totally dependent on direct payments for their income
The dependence of Irish farm incomes on the Single Farm Payment and other direct payments was starkly revealed by the publication of the 2006 results of the annual National Farm Survey (NFS) this week. Fully 98% of Family Farm Income (FFI) on Irish farms in 2006 was derived from the Single Farm Payment and other direct payments; only 2% represented the return from the market, the lowest recorded since the Survey commenced. Market FFI per farm in 2006 was only €334. In 2004, 86% of Family Farm Income came from direct payments and subsidies, and 14% from the market place.… Read the rest
Set aside: act now, think later…
Following a Swedish proposal and widespread support in the Agriculture Council, the Commission announced the intention to set the level of compulsory set aside at 0% for the 2008 harvest. This is bad news for Europe’s wildlife and suggests a disappointing level of commitment to environmental sustainability on the side of the EU and its Member States. It also seems like a textbook case of ill conceived decision making. … Read the rest
Sad news
It is with great sadness that I report to readers of CAP Health Check the sudden and unexpected death of Secondo Tarditi, one of the agricultural policy experts contributing their thoughts to this blog. A fuller appreciation of Secondo’s life and his contribution to European agricultural economics will follow. In the mean time we express our sadness and extend our sympathies to Secondo’s family and friends who are mourning the loss of a talented, vivacious and charming man.… Read the rest
CAP policy instruments and policy goals: cause or effect?
Fellow blogger Wyn Grant presented a paper in Paris last month which presents a wide-ranging overview of the changes in CAP policy instruments since its inception to the present day. His basic thesis is that over time the instruments have changed much more than the objectives and that this does reflect a shift in the content of the CAP and its ultimate goals. He concludes that it is changes in CAP policy which have led to changes in policy instruments, although he does cite some examples where the introduction of new instruments, possibly by creating obvious anomalies, can spark off wider policy debates (trading SFP entitlements, voluntary modulation).… Read the rest
Sarko's hard line could have a paradoxical end
The hard line being taken by France’s new president, Nicolas Sarkozy, on the future of the CAP could have a paradoxical outcome: further re-nationalisation of the policy once seen as the cornerstone of the European Union.… Read the rest
UK farm leader says organic shoppers have 'more money than sense'
In a classic example of how not to win friends and influence people, Peter Kendall, President of the UK National Famers’ Union, has described shoppers who buy organic food as having ‘more money than sense’. In the cover feature of last Saturday’s Financial Times weekend magazine, Kendall takes a swipe at the organic movement and in doing so break the cardinal law of sales: the customer is always right. … Read the rest
UK Parliament slams the CAP
A report by the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs select committee of the UK Parliament has called for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy to be replaced by a new “Rural Policy for the EU”. While the committee of MPs, whose job is to shadow the work of the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), described the objectives of the CAP as ‘an anachronism’, it reserved its strongest criticism for the UK government itself, which is described as naive and impatient.… Read the rest
Fruit & veg reform could bring health benefits
Seeing through the Commission’s proposal for reform of the fruit and vegetable regime could bring health benefits. With the exception of Greece and Italy no EU member state is currently meeting the World Health Organisation’s recommended consumption rate of 400kg per day per capita. From the viewpoint of Commission officials, getting consumption up to the WHO minimum level would also provide a commercial answer to the sector’s marketing problems.… Read the rest