It is frequently asserted in Brussels agricultural policy discussions that European farmers over the past few years are barely surviving, buffeted by unprecedented price collapses, the unwillingness of supermarkets to pay decent prices, the closure of external markets and tightening regulations. Commissioner Hogan spent much of the first half of his term of office bringing forward one emergency financial package after the other as taxpayers pumped more money into a sector supposedly on its last legs.
This picture of an industry in crisis is naturally promoted by the well-oiled publicity machine maintained by the farm lobbies in Brussels and national capitals. But is it true? In this post, we examine the statistics on farm income trends to investigate this issue.
Eurostat produces the official figures on farm incomes in the EU. Preliminary estimates for 2016 (the first forecast) should be released towards the end of December of the relevant year, with the second updated forecast released the following March.… Read the rest
What the UK Conservative Party manifesto says about Brexit
Given that Mrs Theresa May seems certain to be returned as UK Prime Minister with a greatly increased majority after the UK General Election on 8 June next, it is worth paying particular attention to what the Conservative Party manifesto which was launched yesterday has to say on Brexit issues in general and trade, immigration and agricultural issues in particular.
The manifesto actually has little new to say on these topics, with the exception of a new promise to extend agricultural support at current levels to the end of the next parliament, i.e. 2022 compared to the current commitment to maintain support at current levels to 2020. Given that EU agricultural spending may well be reduced in the next Multiannual Financial Framework period, we could end up with the paradoxical outcome that farmers in the UK, supposedly the greatest critic of the CAP, will receive higher payments following Brexit than if the UK were to remain a member of the EU, at least for a period (though of course direct payments are only one factor in farm incomes, and changes in trade access, tariff protection and exchange rates would also need to be factored in).… Read the rest