Tag: MFF 2028-2034

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The likely size of the CAP budget in the next MFF – reprise

17 March 2026. This post is a revised version of the original post that takes account of some additional information as described in the post.

The likely size of the CAP budget in the next programming period 2028-2034 has been highly contentious since the publication of the Commission’s MFF proposal last July. Among agricultural stakeholders, the AGRI Committee in the Parliament, and the AGRIFISH Council, the amount available for the CAP under its two Pillars in the current programming period was compared with the size of the minimum ring-fenced amount for CAP income support in the proposal and found wanting. The Commission, on the other hand, has insisted on the potential for a larger CAP budget depending on the choices made by Member States. In its most recent Fact Sheet ‘Unlocking synergies integrating EU funding for farming and rural communities’ published in January 2026, it claims “the EU budget in support to farmers and rural communities for 2028-2034 can be at the same level or even higher than the current CAP allocation 2021-2027”.… Read the rest

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Climate and environment in the Commission’s CAP proposal

There has been considerable speculation since publication of the Commission’s proposals for the MFF and for the CAP 2028-2034 in July for what they might mean for climate and environmental ambition in the next programming cycle. The Commission’s Vision for Agriculture and Food Communication had underlined that the call in von der Leyen’s Political Guidelines for “a better balance between incentives, investments and regulation” should be interpreted as giving greater flexibility to farmers and shifting from conditions to incentives. To achieve the same level of climate and environmental ambition through a voluntary approach only using incentives implies the need for significant additional resources. But the Commission’s MFF proposal implies a probable cut in CAP resources, leaving open the question whether the existing level of ambition for these objectives can even be maintained.

In this post, I examine the Commission proposals under three headings:  where climate and environmental action fit within the hierarchy of CAP objectives, innovations in the design of relevant interventions that can impact on the ability to achieve ambitious targets; and the likely level of resources to be available to support such action.… Read the rest

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Negotiating the Member State allocations in the next MFF

Negotiations on the EU’s Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF) take place within the General Affairs Council of the European Union. Ultimately, the final decisions are taken by the European Council of Heads of State and Government and must also receive the consent of the European Parliament. There are many points of friction, including the overall size of the MFF, its allocation across headings, and the question of own resources and how to finance the budget. Traditionally, there is a specific focus on the pre-allocated amounts as these are a significant determinant of the net balance between receipts and contributions for individual Member States – often referred to as the focus on juste retour in the MFF negotiations.

In the Commission’s proposal for the next MFF, the pre-allocated funds have all been merged into a single European Fund for economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture and rural, fisheries and maritime, prosperity and security.… Read the rest

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Commission proposal could allow significant increase in CAP basic payments in many countries

Initial reactions to the publication of the Commission’s proposals for the next CAP and their budgetary implications focused on the overall reduction in the CAP budget for income support (the minimum €296 billion ring-fenced within the National and Regional Partnership Fund). In a previous post, I calculated this reduction to be 15% on a like-for-like basis compared to the current income support under the CAP in current prices. Making a comparison with the current total CAP budget will depend, in addition, on how much Member States will allocate to the non-income support elements of the CAP (including, for example, Co-operation projects (LEADER, EIPs) as well as Knowledge Exchange (AKIS)), which cannot be known at this stage.

However, a deeper dive into the provisions of the relevant Regulations suggests that things are not so simple. Commissioners Serafin and Hansen have promised that farmers can continue to receive the same money under the proposed CAP as they do at present.… Read the rest

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Which countries gain or lose from the National and Regional Partnership Fund?

This is a revised version of the original post, to take account of the very helpful comment below which pointed out an error in my original Table 1. This is the strength of blog posting and I am very happy to make the correction.

One of the ideas stressed in the Commission’s presentation of the CAP budget proposal in the next MFF is that the €296 billion ring-fenced for CAP income support and some fisheries expenditure is a minimum amount. Member States will be able to add to that from their overall ceilings in the National and Regional Partnership Fund (NRPF) when they design their National and Regional Partnership Plans. While correct in theory, there will also be huge demands for these resources from other priorities. In this post, I assess the likelihood that Member States might be willing to top up the minimum amounts for CAP income support from their overall NRPF allocation.… Read the rest