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The likely size of the CAP budget in the next MFF – reprise

The likely size of the CAP budget in the next programming period 2028-2034 has been highly contentious since the publication of the Commission’s MFF proposal last July. Among agricultural stakeholders, the AGRI Committee in the Parliament, and the AGRIFISH Council, the amount available for the CAP under its two Pillars in the current programming period was compared with the size of the minimum ring-fenced amount for CAP income support in the proposal and found wanting. The Commission, on the other hand, has insisted on the potential for a larger CAP budget depending on the choices made by Member States. In its most recent Fact Sheet ‘Unlocking synergies integrating EU funding for farming and rural communities’ published in January 2026, it claims “the EU budget in support to farmers and rural communities for 2028-2034 can be at the same level or even higher than the current CAP allocation 2021-2027”.

I have written several blog posts exploring the different factors that will influence the size of the future CAP budget.… Read the rest

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Geographical Indications as One Health Instruments

Integrating Results-Based Environmental Payments into the EU Quality Framework

By Pablo Palencia 

Pablo Palencia is a veterinarian and consultant with over 25 years of experience in One Health and agrifood strategy. He served as the Regional Minister for Rural Development, Livestock, Fisheries, and Food in Cantabria, Spain. Throughout his career, he has led the development of strategic projects for cooperatives and the establishment of PGI (Protected Geographical Indication) frameworks, focusing on integrating living heritage and ecosystem services into legal structures to ensure the resilience of livestock production systems.  info@iberap.com

European Geographical Indications (GIs), including Protected Geographical Indications (PGIs), were originally designed to protect product names, prevent imitation and reinforce rural value creation. Today, however, they sit at the intersection of trade policy, sustainability, public health and territorial resilience.

GIs are no longer only internal EU tools. They are already embedded in international trade diplomacy. They are explicitly negotiated in the EU–Mercosur agreement and EU–India trade discussions.… Read the rest

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Institutional Reform Will Shape the Next CAP

How the new MFF architecture and the NRPP could redefine design, delivery and decisions in EU farm policy

This guest post is written by Emil Erjavec, Professor of Agricultural Policy and Economics at the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia. Professor Erjavec is a member of the Tools4CAP Coordination and Support project within the Horizon Europe programme supporting the design and monitoring of the national CAP Strategic Plans 2023-2027 and laying the foundations for a sound preparation of post-2027 Strategic Plans.

The storm sparked in July by the European Commission’s proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and its reorganization of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has now subsided, at least publicly. Some calm may reflect efforts by the Commission President to placate the European Parliament – reportedly by setting aside 10% of the National and Regional Partnership Plan (NRPP) envelope outside of the earmarked amounts for the CAP and CFP for rural development in addition to the ring-fencing already promised for CAP income support.… Read the rest

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An uncommon CAP?

The European Court of Auditors has released an Opinion on the draft CAP and CMO Regulations proposed by the Commission. It is a welcome analysis as it moves the discussion on the CAP in the next programming period 2028-2034 beyond the budget and governance issues that have dominated the debate to date, and provides an analytical examination of the changes proposed by the Commission for the CAP interventions themselves. There are many useful insights in the Opinion.

The one interpretation that I found puzzling was the ECA’s discussion of crisis payments for farmers (Article 38 of the Fund proposal). Box 5 in the Opinion appears to suggest that, in the event of natural disasters, access to exceptional measures funded by the EU Facility would only take effect after crisis payments to farmers had been established. My reading of Article 34(9) suggests that it excludes financing crisis payments to farmers in the event of natural disasters by the EU Facility, although why that should be the case is not explained or justified, but it does not require such payments before Member States can seek additional aid from this Facility.… Read the rest

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Beyond the CAP: Recognising Living Heritage for Generational Renewal

A new structural framework for rural resilience and global competitiveness in the face of the Mercosur challenge

By Pablo Palencia Garrido-Lestache

Pablo Palencia Garrido-Lestache is a veterinarian and consultant with over 25 years of experience in One Health and agrifood strategy. He served as the Regional Minister for Rural Development, Livestock, Fisheries, and Food in Cantabria, Spain. Throughout his career, he has led the development of strategic projects for cooperatives and the establishment of PGI (Protected Geographical Indication) frameworks, focusing on integrating living heritage and ecosystem services into legal structures to ensure the resilience of livestock production systems. info@iberap.com

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Europe faces a silent but structural crisis in agriculture: generational renewal is failing. Across many EU regions, more than half of farm holders are over 55, while only a small fraction of young people enters the sector. In many rural areas, when a farmer retires, the farm simply disappears.

For decades, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has been the backbone of European agriculture.… Read the rest

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Dealing with stranded assets in the green transition

The latest edition of the journal Nature Food includes an article by Anniek Kortleve and co-authors on the role that stranded assets in European agriculture might play during food systems transformation. The context they consider is a shift towards plant-based diets which it is assumed will lead to a corresponding reduction in the demand for livestock products (animal sourced foods, ASF). The paper estimates the value of the capital assets that would become redundant under diet shifts of different magnitudes. It highlights the role that depreciation of assets can play to limit the extent of stranded assets, while also arguing that targeted policy support will be needed to avoid prolonged lock-in and to accelerate more rapid food system transformation.

Stranded assets can result from a shift in demand, but also due to climate change. Think of investments in fruit trees or vineyards that are no longer productive in a particular area because of water scarcity or high temperatures.… Read the rest

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The rural 10% target cannot be monitored

In the autumn of last year, the European Parliament came close to rejecting the Commission’s MFF proposal as the basis for negotiations. In October 2025, the leaders of four of the main political groups in the Parliament – EPP, S&D, Renew and Greens/EFA – wrote to President von der Leyen stating plainly that the Commission proposal had not taken the Parliament’s core requests into consideration and demanding an amended proposal reflecting these requests to allow negotiations with the Parliament to move forward (a copy of this letter was made available by Politico Europe).

In response, the Commission in a non-paper (made available by Euractiv) proposed several amendments to its proposal, which were subsequently included in a speech made by President von der Leyen at a plenary debate of the Parliament on the MFF’s architecture and governance in November 2025. This included a proposal for a rural target expressed as a minimum percentage of the NRP Plans’ general allocation envelope outside of the earmarked amounts for the CAP and CFP as well as the Catalyst Europe loans to be spent in rural areas.… Read the rest

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Lessons from the new U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans

I am not an expert in nutrition and, if I am honest, I have been sceptical of the significance of occasional health-related claims such as the claimed link between red meat and cancer. But that there is a link between diets and ill-health is indisputable. What is less clear is the nature of these links, which has been brought into sharp focus by the publication of the latest U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2025-2030 by U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins two days ago on 7 January 2026.

In 2021, the OECD published a report prepared by Koen Deconinck Making Better Policies for Food Systems which argued that achieving better food policies for food systems requires overcoming frictions related to facts, interests and values. The latest U.S. Dietary Guidelines provide a relevant case study of the way differences in the interpretation of facts can influence policy recommendations.… Read the rest

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Potential increase in CAP funding in next MFF

The figures in Table 1 have been slightly revised since the original post to calculate the flexibility amount as 25% of a country’s NRPF financial allocation less its minimum ring-fenced amount for CAP income support (from which the allocation for CAP investment supports for farmers and foresters should be deducted). In the original post I had based the calculation on the NRPF general allocation.

Commission President von der Leyen sent a letter to the Cypriot Presidency of the Council and to the President of the European Parliament yesterday 6 January 2026, in which she proposed to make additional resources available as of 2028 to address the needs of farmers and rural communities (with thanks to Politico Europe for the link).

This letter was sent on the same day as the Cyprus Presidency invited all Agriculture Ministers to a meeting also attended by the Commissioners for agriculture, trade and health to provide reassurances to Italy and other Member States to sign up to the contentious EU-Mercosur free trade agreement on Friday.… Read the rest

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The role of borrowing in the EU’s MFF budget discussions

The New Year 2026 will see negotiations on the EU’s next medium-term budget step up in gear. Many Member States have called to set a deadline of end 2026 to agree on the next Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF). This is necessary if the new MFF programmes are to start on 1 January 2028.

That this is a very ambitious deadline is an understatement. The Danes set a cracking pace in organising the Council’s MFF discussions under their Presidency, and presented a first draft of the famous ‘negotiating box’ to the European Council meeting in December 2025. This draft, without figures, was presented under the sole responsibility of the Presidency. The accompanying progress report recognised that significant political as well as technical issues remain to be resolved. Bridging these divides under the Cypriot and Irish Presidencies will require a massive effort in the coming twelve months.

Although it is the Council that negotiates the MFF budget, the European Parliament (EP) must also give its consent.… Read the rest