Navigating EU fertiliser policy through turbulent times

The governance of nitrogen fertiliser markets in the European Union has long been shaped by a fundamental and persistent tension between the competing interests of farmers and domestic fertiliser producers. On one side, European farmers advocate for unfettered access to nitrogenous fertilisers at the lowest possible prices—inputs that are critical to their productivity and competitiveness. On the other side, EU-based fertiliser manufacturers have lobbied for trade protection to shield themselves from what they view as unfair competition—particularly low-cost imports of ammonia and nitrogen fertilisers often linked to price dumping or state subsidies in exporting countries.

This traditional conflict has become significantly more complex in recent years, as new forces reshape the political economy of fertiliser trade. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 dramatically altered global energy markets, sending natural gas prices—the main feedstock for synthetic nitrogen fertilisers—soaring across Europe. This not only undermined the cost competitiveness of EU fertiliser producers but also exposed vulnerabilities in the Union’s supply chains, especially its reliance on imports from geopolitically sensitive suppliers such as Russia (see my previous post detailing trends in import sourcing of nitrogenous fertilisers to the EU).… Read the rest

Import dependence for nitrogen supply

Nitrogen is a critical input to agricultural production. In the EU, approximately half of this nutrient is supplied from organic livestock-derived sources while the other half comes from mineral nitrogen (specifically in 2023, organic nitrogen supplied amounted to 8.3 million tonnes and mineral nitrogen 8.7 million tonnes across the EU27, UK, Switzerland and Norway, source Fertilizers Europe 2024).

A significant share of this mineral nitrogen (either directly or in the form of ammonia which is the main feedstock) is imported, which can be a significant source of vulnerability. In this post we examine the extent of this vulnerability in terms of the dependence on nitrogen imports and the main sources of import supply.

Nitrogen use and import dependency

The introduction of the Nitrates Directive in 1991, of the national action programmes for designated nitrate vulnerable zones and the CAP reforms decoupling payments from production levels, all led to steep declines in the use of nitrogenous fertilisers in the 1990s and early 2000s (DG AGRI, 2019) shown in the first figure below.… Read the rest

Climate measures in Irish agriculture

Today, I made an online presentation to a virtual workshop jointly organised by MAREI, the Marine and Renewable Energy Ireland centre at University College Cork and the Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin on climate and energy policy research. The talk discussed measures in agriculture to reduce Irish agriculture’s greenhouse gas footprint in the context of the country’s policy goals for climate stabilisation. Below is a transcript of the talk.

Agriculture is the single largest contributor to Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 34% of total national emissions in 2018, but 46% of the emissions that are limited by the EU Effort Sharing Decision. If we are to reduce emissions in line with our national targets for 2030 and 2050, agricultural emissions must clearly be reduced. Yet they have been increasing in recent years.

Reducing absolute emissions is more difficult in agriculture because of the absence of obvious technical solutions such as exist for energy generation, transport and the built environment.… Read the rest