Author: Alan Matthews

UK farmers are preparing to protest tomorrow November 19th outside Parliament against inheritance tax changes in the new Labour Government budget announced last month. They claim these changes will have a devastating impact on family farm businesses. Perhaps surprisingly, the accelerated phase-out of direct payments also announced in that budget has not been the focus of attention. In this post, I discuss the phasing out of direct payments, leaving the inheritance tax issue to one side.

The UK has been preparing and implementing its post-Brexit agricultural policy since 2018 with the most significant changes taking place in England among the four UK countries.… Read the rest

In this post, I look at Member State net budget balances when it comes to CAP expenditure – which Member States would be net gainers or losers from an increase or decrease in the CAP budget, assuming the allocation criteria in play in 2023 were continued. The justification for this exercise is that these net balances likely feed into Member States’ views on the appropriate size of the CAP budget. Net recipients are more likely to favour an expansion in the budget, net payers the opposite. We know that the ‘juste retour’ principle is alive and well when it comes to negotiating the next Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF).… Read the rest

This post is a rather technical note on how we set and interpret climate targets where the underlying data series are subject to frequent revisions. In the EU’s climate architecture, the level of ambition is usually expressed in terms of reduction commitments relative to a base year. Sometimes these reduction commitments are in percentage terms but are then converted into absolute figures using data from the National Inventory Reports for a recent year or period. In other cases, the reduction commitments are already expressed in absolute terms, but the size of the required reduction has previously been determined by reference to national inventories in a base year or period.… Read the rest

My attention was caught by a post on X (formerly Twitter) this week from Franz Sinabell, economist at the Austrian Institute for Economic Research. He reproduced a graph based on European Central Bank data showing the evolution of the nominal effective exchange rate for the euro over time. As can be seen from the post below, this shows a steady, if uneven, upward trend indicating a gradual appreciation of the euro, reaching a peak in August 2024. Franz commented that “Sectors that earn money on international markets – e.g. with agricultural goods or food – are currently not having an easy time”.… Read the rest

Yesterday’s vote in Moldova resulted in a razor-thin majority in favour of enshrining the goal of EU membership in the country’s constitution. It appears that significant efforts may have been made by outside interests to influence the voting but, even taking this into account, Moldova appears to be a country deeply divided about the future direction it wants to take. Here, the prospects for EU membership and the cost of the steps that need to be taken for membership to become a reality play an important role.

Moldova applied for EU membership on 3 March 2022, the same day as Georgia and just a few days after Ukraine made its application on 28 February 2022.… Read the rest

Annex III of the CAP Strategic Plans Regulation (EU) 2021/2115 sets out the conditionality rules that farmers seeking CAP payments should follow. Under the climate and environment heading, and with the intention to protect the quantity and quality of biodiversity, GAEC standard 8 required a minimum share of the agricultural area devoted to non-productive areas and features, with a derogation for holdings where more than 75% of the area is used for permanent grassland or for the production of grasses or other herbaceous forage, or for the cultivation of crops under water. Holdings with an arable area less than 10 hectares were also exempt, as were certain holdings in areas of natural constraints in Member States with more than 50% of their total land surface area covered by forests.… Read the rest

The European Commission has just released its Autumn 2024 short-term Outlook for agricultural markets which highlights a gradual but fragile return to stability. Eurostat has also released data on agricultural output and input price movements for the first two quarters of this year. The Commission’s short-term Outlook does not contain a forecast for farm income developments in 2024 – we must wait until mid-December for the first official forecast when Eurostat publishes its preliminary estimate for 2024 farm income. However, with these two sources of information in hand, we can begin to make some educated guesses about the likely farm income outcome this year.… Read the rest