Author: Alan Matthews

Alan Matthews is Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy in the Department of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland. His major research interests are agricultural policy analysis, the impact of international trade on developing countries, and computable general equilibrium analysis of trade and agricultural policy reforms. He has worked as a consultant to the European Parliament, the OECD, the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations and the UN Industrial Development Organisation, and has been a panel member in a number of WTO Dispute Settlement procedures. He is a former President of the European Association of Agricultural Economists but writes here in a personal capacity.
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What Durban means for EU agriculture

Agriculture, uniquely, has a dual role in climate change discussions. It faces significant adaptation challenges as global temperatures rise and there is a greater frequency of extreme weather events. But it also has the potential to help mitigate climate change through reducing emissions and removing them through carbon sequestration.

In this post, I ask what the implications of the outcome of the Durban UNFCCC climate conference might be for EU farming and agricultural policy.

Agriculture and EU emission targets – where we stand

Agriculture is included in the accounting for the EU’s Kyoto Protocol emission reduction targets for the period 2008-2012 and in the Climate and Energy Package (CEP) 2020 target of a 20% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions over the 1990 base year.

How farming might be affected by these targets is up to the individual member states to decide. There are no agriculture-specific targets at EU level. Agricultural emissions contribute just under 10% to total EU emissions, but what counts in measuring the potential contribution required from agriculture to the EU targets is its contribution to total non-ETS emissions.… Read the rest

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Launch of E-learning CAP course

For those interested in learning more about the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, a new online learning course on the CAP has just been launched by Groupe de Bruges in association with Associazione Alessandro Bartola/Agriregionieuropa and SPERA (Interuniversity Center on Rural, Environmental, Economic Policies) led from the University of Ancona. The course consists of eight modules and participation is free [Disclaimer: I have contributed one of the modules on the CAP in an international context]. Each module consists of one or two powerpoint lessons lasting around 40 minutes, and there are short entry and exit tests to help students assess their knowledge. Financial support for the development of the course was provided by the European Commission and the Swiss Fondation Charles Léopold Mayer pour le Progrés de l’Homme.

Already in the first month around 200 people from 30 countries had registered to take the course. This thread is open for comments and feedback from anyone who has registered and participated in the course.… Read the rest

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Agricultural consequences of the eurozone crisis

The consequences of the decisions at the fateful Brussels summit on 9 December 2011 will take time to assess. Whether leaders did enough to calm the markets and allow eurozone governments to refinance their enormous debts next year at reasonable interest rates will be known relatively quickly. Many commentators feel that financial markets will not be impressed, and that the EU is facing into a prolonged depression in which the break-up of the eurozone is a real possibility.

The significance of the institutional changes implied by the creation of a new inner core of EU member states pledged to achieve greater fiscal integration will only be known over a longer time span. Whether Britain, by opposing a new treaty, has lost influence and will move towards the EU’s exit door is also still unclear.

EU agriculture and agricultural policy-making in the EU will not be immune to these momentous changes. Whether the CAP budget can be safeguarded in the negotiations for the next Multi-annual Financial Framework must be increasingly in doubt.… Read the rest

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New Commission study on impacts of Doha Round

The G20 Cannes Summit, despite being side-tracked by the continuing eurozone crisis, did address other issues of importance to the global economy. In the section of its final communiqué on trade, the heads of state reaffirmed their ritualistic commitment to the Doha Round mandate. However, they went on to note that “It is clear that we will not complete the [Doha Development Agenda] if we continue to conduct negotiations as we have in the past.” Instead, they called for “fresh, credible approaches to furthering negotiations, including the issues of concern for Least Developed Countries and, where they can bear fruit, the remaining elements of the DDA mandate” to be pursued in 2012.

However, as the preparations for the forthcoming WTO Ministerial Council on 15-17 December rachet up in Geneva, there is little evidence that the same countries are ready to reach agreement on a common approach to the next steps to rescue the Doha Round.… Read the rest

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Russian WTO accession by end year?

An announcement last week by Karel de Gucht, the EU Trade Commissioner, that the EU and Russia had struck a deal on remaining outstanding bilateral issues in negotiating Russia’s accession to WTO membership raises the prospect that this economic giant could become a WTO member by the end of this year.

Russia and the WTO

Russia first made its application in 1993 so has been negotiating its accession now for 18 years, by far the longest of any accession process by a WTO applicant. This reflects in part the country’s economic size (it is the sixth largest economy in the world on a PPP basis). Whereas normally 6-10 countries might seek to open bilateral negotiations with an acceding country because they had special trade interests at stake, in Russia’s case more than 60 countries made such requests.

But also China was a large economy whose WTO accession affected many countries, but despite the greater legacy of a command-and-control economy than in Russia’s case, China has now been a WTO member for a decade.… Read the rest

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Farmers and the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund

A row has broken out over the Commission’s proposal to use the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF) in the next financial perspectives period to help farmers who might be adversely affected by the conclusion of EU trade agreements. According to a report in Europolitics, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) is opposed to farmers being included in the list of potential beneficiaries of the Fund. The union confederation wants the funds reserved for workers, and argues that farmers should be helped under Pillar 2 of the CAP.

Background

In the new EGF regulation the Commission has proposed that its scope should be extended to provide transitory support to farmers to facilitate their adaptation to a new market situation resulting from the conclusion by the Union of trade agreements affecting agricultural products. Examples given of such possible forthcoming trade agreements are those under negotiation with Mercosur countries, or in the context of the World Trade Organisation under the Doha Development Agenda.… Read the rest

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The legislative timeline for CAP reform

The publication of the Commission’s legislative package for CAP reform is merely the starting gun for the EU’s legislative procedure to debate the regulations before they can take effect. The regulations now enter the co-decision procedure involving the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament (EP).

In an article this week in the Irish farming press, Mairead McGuinness set out the timeline as seen from the Parliament’s perspective. Mairead McGuiness is the EPP Group shadow rapporteur for the direct payments report contained within the legislative package, and thus centrally involved in formulating the EP’s position.

According to McGuinness, the current timeline envisages that draft reports will be prepared for consideration by the Agriculture Committee by April next, with a vote in Committee taking place in September on the changes proposed by MEPs.

However, she warns that given the complexity of the reforms proposed this timetable is by no means certain and that divergent views may delay the work programme.… Read the rest

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Updated analysis of Commission legislative proposals

The International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development has now published the final updated version of my paper looking at the trade and development implications of the Commission’s legislative proposals for the CAP post 2013. Apart from making some corrections to the preliminary version, it takes account of the main changes in the Commission’s proposals on October 12th last compared to what was in the heavily-leaked drafts as well as the full impact assessments released at the same time.

The main changes include:
– The replacement of the firm commitment to have a uniform payment per hectare across all land and member states by 2029 in the regulation itself, to an aspirational commitment in the preambular material that member states will work towards this goal in the next financial perspectives period.
– The possibility for Member States to modulate up to 10%, rather than 5%, of their Pillar 1 envelope to enhance their Pillar 2 funds.… Read the rest

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Analysis of the Commission’s legislative proposals due tomorrow Wednesday 12 October

Tomorrow the Commission will unveil its legislative proposals for the future CAP regulations after 2013. As readers of this blog will be aware, the proposals have been widely flagged in various leaked draft versions. But it will be fascinating to see to what extent, if at all, the the final version will take account of the intense lobbying of the Commission by member states in recent weeks.

The International Centre for Sustainable Trade and Development (ICSTD) has just published a draft paper that I have written which attempts to summarise the likely changes to be announced tomorrow and to assess their implications for trade and development. This version is obviously preliminary, and it will be revised in the light of the actual legislative proposals. I hope to provide my own assessment of any significant changes from the leaked draft versions on this blog over the next couple of days.… Read the rest

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Analysis of the Commission's legislative proposals due tomorrow Wednesday 12 October

Tomorrow the Commission will unveil its legislative proposals for the future CAP regulations after 2013. As readers of this blog will be aware, the proposals have been widely flagged in various leaked draft versions. But it will be fascinating to see to what extent, if at all, the the final version will take account of the intense lobbying of the Commission by member states in recent weeks.
The International Centre for Sustainable Trade and Development (ICSTD) has just published a draft paper that I have written which attempts to summarise the likely changes to be announced tomorrow and to assess their implications for trade and development. This version is obviously preliminary, and it will be revised in the light of the actual legislative proposals. I hope to provide my own assessment of any significant changes from the leaked draft versions on this blog over the next couple of days.… Read the rest