Author: Alan Matthews

Alan Matthews is Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy in the Department of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland. His major research interests are agricultural policy analysis, the impact of international trade on developing countries, and computable general equilibrium analysis of trade and agricultural policy reforms. He has worked as a consultant to the European Parliament, the OECD, the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations and the UN Industrial Development Organisation, and has been a panel member in a number of WTO Dispute Settlement procedures. He is a former President of the European Association of Agricultural Economists but writes here in a personal capacity.
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Enabling Ukrainian EU membership

For this post, I have used OpenAI’s GPT-5.3 model, May 2026 to help with identifying sources, summarising material, and drafting. The use of large language models in academic and policy-oriented writing remains contested, particularly where issues of authorship, reliability, and originality arise. I have used the model as a research aid rather than a substitute for judgement. Sources identified through the model have been independently checked, and the text has been revised to reflect my own interpretation and emphasis. The purpose of this blog is also partly heuristic: writing serves to organise my own thinking, with the model functioning as a tool in that process. Readers who prefer not to engage with material developed in this way may reasonably choose to look elsewhere, but I hope that the curation, verification, and synthesis undertaken here provide value beyond what a generic model output would deliver. As always, feel free to add your comments to let me know your views on this.… Read the rest

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Assessing the Commission’s CAP proposal: presentation

I was pleased to make a presentation yesterday as part of the series of webinars organised by the European Association of Agricultural Economists for its members, examining the Commission’s proposal for the next CAP. The presentation focused on five topics, recognising that several important issues could not be covered due to time constraints.

The topics were:

•Reflections on the CAP budget in the 2028-2034 period

•Reflections on CAP governance under the Commission proposal

•The future of direct payments

•The future of the CAP’s green architecture

•The future of rural development

My argument on the budget is that it is possible that the overall CAP budget will match the current CAP budget in current prices, as the Commission has argued, but there will be an important redistribution between Member States. This will reflect both their political willingness to transfer additional amounts from their NRP Fund allocation to top up their CAP minimum amounts for income support, but also their structural ability to do so.… Read the rest

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“Europe’s €1.8T budget fight just got real”

Let me make clear immediately that I have taken this headline from an article published in Politico yesterday written by Giorgio Leali and collaborators immediately following the conclusion of the informal summit of EU leaders in Cyprus 23-24 April. The article goes on to identify as a problem: “They still don’t agree on what it should do, how big it should be, or who should pay for it.” This rings very true.

So far, we have just two proposals for the size of the 2028-2034 MFF on the table. The first is that of the Commission. Shortly before the European Union leaders met, the Budget Committee of the European Parliament came up with its Interim Report on the next MFF. This sets out the Parliament’s view on the appropriate size of the next MFF. This will be voted on in plenary by the Parliament on 29 April and, once confirmed (which will almost certainly be the case), the Parliament will be ready to enter into discussions with the Council once it has agreed on its common position.… Read the rest

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Reflections on the future governance of the CAP

On 9 April last I took part in a workshop organised by the Policy Department for Regional Development, Agriculture and Fisheries of the European Parliament on behalf of the Parliament’s Agriculture Committee on “The Multiannual Financial Framework and the Common Agricultural Policy for the period 2028-2034”. Elsa Régnier, a research fellow at the French think tank IDDRI Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales made a presentation on the MFF budgetary implications for the CAP, while my contribution focused on the future governance of the CAP.

The EP Policy Department has made a web page available that summarises the discussion, and which links to the presentations and to the video recording of the event. In this post, I reproduce my opening remarks to the workshop, and conclude with some reflections on the discussion. The opening contributions were limited to 8 minutes and for that reason were limited in the scope of the issues that could be covered.… Read the rest

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The likely size of the CAP budget in the next MFF – reprise

17 March 2026. This post is a revised version of the original post that takes account of some additional information as described in the post.

The likely size of the CAP budget in the next programming period 2028-2034 has been highly contentious since the publication of the Commission’s MFF proposal last July. Among agricultural stakeholders, the AGRI Committee in the Parliament, and the AGRIFISH Council, the amount available for the CAP under its two Pillars in the current programming period was compared with the size of the minimum ring-fenced amount for CAP income support in the proposal and found wanting. The Commission, on the other hand, has insisted on the potential for a larger CAP budget depending on the choices made by Member States. In its most recent Fact Sheet ‘Unlocking synergies integrating EU funding for farming and rural communities’ published in January 2026, it claims “the EU budget in support to farmers and rural communities for 2028-2034 can be at the same level or even higher than the current CAP allocation 2021-2027”.… Read the rest

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An uncommon CAP?

The European Court of Auditors has released an Opinion on the draft CAP and CMO Regulations proposed by the Commission. It is a welcome analysis as it moves the discussion on the CAP in the next programming period 2028-2034 beyond the budget and governance issues that have dominated the debate to date, and provides an analytical examination of the changes proposed by the Commission for the CAP interventions themselves. There are many useful insights in the Opinion.

The one interpretation that I found puzzling was the ECA’s discussion of crisis payments for farmers (Article 38 of the Fund proposal). Box 5 in the Opinion appears to suggest that, in the event of natural disasters, access to exceptional measures funded by the EU Facility would only take effect after crisis payments to farmers had been established. My reading of Article 34(9) suggests that it excludes financing crisis payments to farmers in the event of natural disasters by the EU Facility, although why that should be the case is not explained or justified, but it does not require such payments before Member States can seek additional aid from this Facility.… Read the rest

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Dealing with stranded assets in the green transition

The latest edition of the journal Nature Food includes an article by Anniek Kortleve and co-authors on the role that stranded assets in European agriculture might play during food systems transformation. The context they consider is a shift towards plant-based diets which it is assumed will lead to a corresponding reduction in the demand for livestock products (animal sourced foods, ASF). The paper estimates the value of the capital assets that would become redundant under diet shifts of different magnitudes. It highlights the role that depreciation of assets can play to limit the extent of stranded assets, while also arguing that targeted policy support will be needed to avoid prolonged lock-in and to accelerate more rapid food system transformation.

Stranded assets can result from a shift in demand, but also due to climate change. Think of investments in fruit trees or vineyards that are no longer productive in a particular area because of water scarcity or high temperatures.… Read the rest

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The rural 10% target cannot be monitored

In the autumn of last year, the European Parliament came close to rejecting the Commission’s MFF proposal as the basis for negotiations. In October 2025, the leaders of four of the main political groups in the Parliament – EPP, S&D, Renew and Greens/EFA – wrote to President von der Leyen stating plainly that the Commission proposal had not taken the Parliament’s core requests into consideration and demanding an amended proposal reflecting these requests to allow negotiations with the Parliament to move forward (a copy of this letter was made available by Politico Europe).

In response, the Commission in a non-paper (made available by Euractiv) proposed several amendments to its proposal, which were subsequently included in a speech made by President von der Leyen at a plenary debate of the Parliament on the MFF’s architecture and governance in November 2025. This included a proposal for a rural target expressed as a minimum percentage of the NRP Plans’ financial allocation envelope outside of the earmarked amounts for the CAP and CFP as well as the Catalyst Europe loans to be spent in rural areas.… Read the rest

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Lessons from the new U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans

I am not an expert in nutrition and, if I am honest, I have been sceptical of the significance of occasional health-related claims such as the claimed link between red meat and cancer. But that there is a link between diets and ill-health is indisputable. What is less clear is the nature of these links, which has been brought into sharp focus by the publication of the latest U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2025-2030 by U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins two days ago on 7 January 2026.

In 2021, the OECD published a report prepared by Koen Deconinck Making Better Policies for Food Systems which argued that achieving better food policies for food systems requires overcoming frictions related to facts, interests and values. The latest U.S. Dietary Guidelines provide a relevant case study of the way differences in the interpretation of facts can influence policy recommendations.… Read the rest

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Potential increase in CAP funding in next MFF

The figures in Table 1 have been slightly revised since the original post to calculate the flexibility amount as 25% of a country’s NRPF financial allocation less its minimum ring-fenced amount for CAP income support (from which the allocation for CAP investment supports for farmers and foresters should be deducted). In the original post I had based the calculation on the NRPF general allocation.

Commission President von der Leyen sent a letter to the Cypriot Presidency of the Council and to the President of the European Parliament yesterday 6 January 2026, in which she proposed to make additional resources available as of 2028 to address the needs of farmers and rural communities (with thanks to Politico Europe for the link).

This letter was sent on the same day as the Cyprus Presidency invited all Agriculture Ministers to a meeting also attended by the Commissioners for agriculture, trade and health to provide reassurances to Italy and other Member States to sign up to the contentious EU-Mercosur free trade agreement on Friday.… Read the rest