Author: Alan Matthews

My attention was caught by a post on X (formerly Twitter) this week from Franz Sinabell, economist at the Austrian Institute for Economic Research. He reproduced a graph based on European Central Bank data showing the evolution of the nominal effective exchange rate for the euro over time. As can be seen from the post below, this shows a steady, if uneven, upward trend indicating a gradual appreciation of the euro, reaching a peak in August 2024. Franz commented that “Sectors that earn money on international markets – e.g. with agricultural goods or food – are currently not having an easy time”.… Read the rest

Yesterday’s vote in Moldova resulted in a razor-thin majority in favour of enshrining the goal of EU membership in the country’s constitution. It appears that significant efforts may have been made by outside interests to influence the voting but, even taking this into account, Moldova appears to be a country deeply divided about the future direction it wants to take. Here, the prospects for EU membership and the cost of the steps that need to be taken for membership to become a reality play an important role.

Moldova applied for EU membership on 3 March 2022, the same day as Georgia and just a few days after Ukraine made its application on 28 February 2022.… Read the rest

Annex III of the CAP Strategic Plans Regulation (EU) 2021/2115 sets out the conditionality rules that farmers seeking CAP payments should follow. Under the climate and environment heading, and with the intention to protect the quantity and quality of biodiversity, GAEC standard 8 required a minimum share of the agricultural area devoted to non-productive areas and features, with a derogation for holdings where more than 75% of the area is used for permanent grassland or for the production of grasses or other herbaceous forage, or for the cultivation of crops under water. Holdings with an arable area less than 10 hectares were also exempt, as were certain holdings in areas of natural constraints in Member States with more than 50% of their total land surface area covered by forests.… Read the rest

The European Commission has just released its Autumn 2024 short-term Outlook for agricultural markets which highlights a gradual but fragile return to stability. Eurostat has also released data on agricultural output and input price movements for the first two quarters of this year. The Commission’s short-term Outlook does not contain a forecast for farm income developments in 2024 – we must wait until mid-December for the first official forecast when Eurostat publishes its preliminary estimate for 2024 farm income. However, with these two sources of information in hand, we can begin to make some educated guesses about the likely farm income outcome this year.… Read the rest