Author: Alan Matthews

Alan Matthews is Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy in the Department of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland. His major research interests are agricultural policy analysis, the impact of international trade on developing countries, and computable general equilibrium analysis of trade and agricultural policy reforms. He has worked as a consultant to the European Parliament, the OECD, the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations and the UN Industrial Development Organisation, and has been a panel member in a number of WTO Dispute Settlement procedures. He is a former President of the European Association of Agricultural Economists but writes here in a personal capacity.
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What is happening to EU land prices?

The evolution of agricultural land prices and rents can be a good indicator of the effect of agricultural policy, because of the assumption that a significant proportion of the transfers to farmers as a result of such policy are capitalised into land values. Thus, changes in agricultural policy may have implications for land values, and the prospect of capital losses due to a fall in land values can be one source of opposition to such changes.

The issue is relevant in the context of the Commission’s proposals to introduce a ‘regret clause’ with respect to the implementation of the Single Payment Scheme as part of the Health Check. This would allow countries which have implemented the historic model of Single Farm Payments (SFP) to convert to a regional or flat-rate model if they desired.

The impact of such a proposal on land values is clearly one consideration which member state governments would need to consider in contemplating such a move.… Read the rest

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Milk quota removal could cost EU farmers €4 billion

The elimination of milk quotas as currently foreseen in 2015 will result in a loss to producers of €4 billion, and a gain to consumers of €3.7 billion, according to research by economists at the Institut d’Economie Industrielle in Toulouse. The group were asked to evaluate the impacts of the expiry of the EU milk quota system, comparing particularly a ‘soft landing’ scenario in which milk quotas are gradually increased between now and 2015, and a ‘hard landing scenario’ in which quotas are maintained until 2015 and then eliminated in that year. The ‘hard landing’ scenario postpones the adverse effects for producers both in competitive milk-producing countries (where quota rents are currently high) as well as in countries which currently are not meeting their quota. The analysis helps to explain why the Commission’s proposals in the Health Check to gradually increase the milk quota are being firmly resisted by a number of member states.… Read the rest

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Irish farmers flex muscles in Lisbon Treaty referendum

The WTO negotiations have become a live issue in Irish politics because Ireland is the only EU country which will hold a referendum to ratify the Lisbon Treaty, and the campaign provides an opportunity for interest groups to maximise their bargaining strength. For example, farm groups who are traditionally pro-EU in referendum votes have threatened to campaign against the Lisbon Treaty not because of the content of the Treaty but because of their dissatisfaction with the way they see Peter Mandelson as EU Trade Commissioner handling the WTO negotiations.

Padraig Walshe, President of the Irish Farmers’ Association, the largest of the Irish farm groups, gave a not-so-veiled warning recently when he noted that “it would be unrealistic to expect the farming community and rural people to vote for the Lisbon Treaty while Mandelson is planning the destruction of the Irish and European family farm structure.”… Read the rest

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US Farm Bill goes to the wire

The US Congress has just 14 days in which to agree on a new farm bill able to secure the approval of the White House, and time is running out. If a farm bill is not passed by March 15th, then the so-called ‘permanent legislation’, the provisions of the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938 and the Agricultural Act of 1949, would again become legally effective. The implications of this happening have recently been analysed by the US Department of Agriculture and would have such a dramatic and perverse effect on US farm programmes that it is most unlikely that Congress would let it happen. But Keith Good’s recent reporting on farmpolicy.com suggests that agreement is proving difficult to reach. There are interesting parallels but also significant differences between farm policy developments in the US and our own farm policy reform in the EU.… Read the rest

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WTO Agricultural Chair presents new modalities paper

The Chair of the agricultural negotiations at the WTO, Crawford Falconer, released his latest version of the draft modalities for an agricultural agreement on Friday last 8 February. This is the culmination of a series of intensive meetings since early January among a representative group of some 37 WTO members. Although there are still many square brackets in the text, representing areas where final political agreement will only be reached in the context of an overall trade-off against concessions in the non-agricultural market access (NAMA) negotiations, the text provides greater clarity on many of the more contentious issues that were outstanding in the previous incarnation of these draft modalities last July. These contentious issues include some of particular interest to developing countries, such as issues like the designation of Special Products and the operation of the Special Safeguard Mechanism. In this post, we look at some implications of the draft text for the EU.… Read the rest

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Agriculture Ministers hold first discussions on Health Check

Agriculture Ministers had their first discussion of the Commission’s Health Check proposals at the first Council meeting under the Slovenian Presidency yesterday. It appears that the two issues causing the most fuss are the Commission’s suggestions to introduce a progressive reduction in single farm payments to larger farms (inaccurately referred to as capping) and to increase the rate of compulsory modulation (which again would only affect larger farms), in both cases with the additional funds going to Pillar 2 rural development measures. At the same time, Ministers were clearly taken by the emphasis on risk management and safety nets in the Commission Communication and called for more specific proposals in this area.… Read the rest

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Is EU biofuels policy worth the candle?

The Commission will announce next Wednesday (January 23rd) its proposals on how it intends to allocate the burden of cuts in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and of increased use of renewables among Member States. Its draft Directive (so far without the crucial percentage shares) reiterates the mandatory target that biofuels should account for 10 per cent of transport fuels in the EU-27 by 2020. There has been intense lobbying by industries, environment groups and member states in the run-up to this announcement. However, there is increasing scepticism that its biofuel plans make much sense in the context of its climate change targets, and environmental groups have called for the target to be abandoned.… Read the rest

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New Irish animal welfare payment sets interesting precedent

When is a direct payment not a coupled payment? When it is an animal welfare payment. No, this is not a riddle found in my Christmas party cracker, but a response to the news that the Irish Government has just been given the go-ahead to introduce an animal welfare payment for Ireland’s 65,000 suckler cow herds. The Animal Recording, Welfare and Breeding Scheme, to give the payment its full title, will commence on 1st January 2008 and run for five years up to 31st December 2012. In return for complying with seven basic requirements, including calf registration, de-budding, castration where appropriate, a minimum calving age, appropriate weaning procedures including the introduction of meal feeding, animal events recording and taking part in a training and education course, suckler producers will qualify for an annual grant of €80 per cow, up to a maximum of 100 cows per herd (more specific details can be found here).… Read the rest

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Commission proposal for 2 per cent increase in milk quota

The Commission has proposed a 2% increase in milk quotas beginning on 1 April 2008 to apply on an equal basis to the 27 Member States. This proposal repeats the Commission’s proposal for a 2% increase in the 2003 Mid Term Review (additional to the 1.5% increase already agreed for 11 Member States as part of Agenda 2000). Member States at that time rejected the proposal but called on the Commission to report on the market situation, once the reform was fully implemented, before a final decision was taken. The Commission has also published this market outlook report which argues that the expected positive growth in demand for dairy products both on the EU and world markets offers ample opportunities to absorb a 2% quota increase. Leaving quotas unchanged would prevent the EU from exploiting rising demand and healthy price levels.… Read the rest