Month: September 2026

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The contribution of recent price movements to farm income

Eurostat released its agricultural output and input price index numbers for the second quarter of 2026 in early September. While they only provide updated price developments for the first half of the year, the trends will have a major influence on the farm income outturn for 2026.

Eurostat notes that, in the second quarter of 2026, the average price of agricultural output in the EU fell by 5.8% compared with the second quarter of 2025. This was a third consecutive quarter of decline. The average price of agricultural inputs (goods and services consumed in agriculture and not related to investment, such as energy, fertilisers or feedingstuffs) increased by 4.7% in the second quarter of 2026. This followed a period of relative price stability throughout 2025, into the first quarter of 2026. The trends are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Developments of agricultural input and output price indices in the EU, Q1 2021 – Q2 2026.
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Redistributive payment or DABIS: Analysis of the Lins amendments

One of the many debates around the Commission’s post-2027 CAP proposal revolves around its proposal for the better targeting of area-based payments. This debate has at least five dimensions:

  • Article 6(2) of the draft CAP Regulation COM(2025) 560 requires that Member States differentiate these payments by groups of farmers or geographical areas, on the basis of objective and non-discriminatory criteria. The basis for the differentiation of payments shall be based on farmers’ income from agricultural activity in a representative reference period. Specifically, differentiated payments should focus on those most in need (with specific groups mentioned including young and new farmers, women farmers, small farmers, mixed enterprise farmers and those operating in less favoured areas).
  • Article 6(3) requires Member States to apply degressivity to area-based payments between €20,000 and €100,000.
  • Article 6(4) requires Member States to cap the amount of area-based payments any one beneficiary can receive at €100,000.
  • Article 6(5) requires that Member States ensure that area-based payments are primarily directed towards farmers who exercise an agricultural activity and actively contribute to food security.
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Europe’s fertiliser dilemma: Balancing affordability, competitiveness and strategic autonomy

When the European Commission published its Fertiliser Action Plan (FAP) in May 2026, it set itself an ambitious objective:

“A successful strategy for fertilisation in the EU requires industry and farmers to work hand in hand in partnership and a transparent value chain: ensuring competitiveness for both farmers and the fertiliser industry and EU strategic autonomy, while helping to achieve EU climate and environmental objectives.”

That statement captures the central challenges of European fertiliser policy. Farmers need reliable supplies of nitrogen fertiliser at affordable prices to remain competitive. European fertiliser manufacturers seek protection from imports that they argue benefit from lower energy costs and weaker environmental standards. At the same time, the European Union wants to decarbonise fertiliser production, reduce nitrogen losses, and strengthen strategic autonomy.

Reconciling these objectives has become more difficult following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in spring 2026 and the resulting increase in natural gas and fertiliser prices.… Read the rest

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The Future of Livestock. Navigating the Perfect Storm: Between Green Deal Ambitions, CAP Reform, and Market Realities

Today I had the pleasure to take part in a plenary session of the EAAP- European Federation of Animal Science annual conference in Hamburg. My contribution provided an overview and update of policy developments and challenges affecting the EU livestock sector. The talk was not a direct commentary on the Commission’s Livestock Strategy published in July this year, but it addresses many of the same issues. The presentation accompanying the talk can be downloaded here, and the whole plenary session can be viewed on the EAAP YouTube channel. I reproduce the talk more or less as delivered in this post.

The perfect storm

Let me begin by stating the obvious. Livestock is of major economic and political importance to the European Union.

It accounts for around 40% of agricultural value added. It generates some €400 billion in annual turnover and supports around 7 million people across the value chain.… Read the rest