Author: Alan Matthews

Alan Matthews is Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy in the Department of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland. His major research interests are agricultural policy analysis, the impact of international trade on developing countries, and computable general equilibrium analysis of trade and agricultural policy reforms. He has worked as a consultant to the European Parliament, the OECD, the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations and the UN Industrial Development Organisation, and has been a panel member in a number of WTO Dispute Settlement procedures. He is a former President of the European Association of Agricultural Economists but writes here in a personal capacity.
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More on capping direct payments

Much initial reaction to the Commission’s leaked Health Check proposals has focused on its renewed attempt to introduce a cap on the Single Farm Payment amount which an individual farmer can receive. In fact, the proposal does not amount to a cap in the sense of an absolute ceiling, but takes of the form of a tapered payment Farmers receiving between €100,000 and €200,000 would face a 10% cut, those receiving between €200,000 and €300,000, a 25% cut and those receiving over €300,000, a 45% cut. Jack Thurston’s post yesterday highlights the limited impact the measure will have.

It might be useful to put the Commission’s proposal in some historical perspective.… Read the rest

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Commission’s CAP Health Check proposals leaked

The Commission’s draft proposals for the CAP Health Check due to be officially released in November have now been widely leaked in the agricultural press (see the UK Farmers Guardian for one summary).

Much initial reaction has focused on the Commission’s renewed attempt to introduce a cap on the Single Farm Payment amount which an individual farmer can receive. Farmers receiving between €100,000 and €200,000 would face a 10% cut, between €200,000 and €300,000, a 25% cut and over €300,000, a 45% cut.

In the longer run, however, the proposals to move towards a standardised uniform, area-based system for calculating Single Payments from 2009, to eliminate partial coupling of arable payments, as well as to increase the compulsory modulation percentage from 5 to 13% by 2013 are likely to have greater significance for farmers and the direct payments system.… Read the rest

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Council agrees reform of the sugar reform

The Council agreed yesterday the Commission’s proposals to improve the attractiveness of the sugar industry restructuring scheme in order to meet the Commission’s objective of a reduction in 6 million tonnes of sugar quota by the end of the four year transition period 2006-2010 for the current EU sugar reform. As noted in a previous post, this reform target had been threatened by a much lower renunciation of quota in Year 2 of the reform than the Commission had assumed.

The key elements of the ‘reform of the reform’ are

  • The percentage of the restructuring aid to processors which is to be given to growers and processors is fixed at 10 percent, with an additional top-up payment to growers of €237.50 per tonne of quota renounced, payable retrospectively.
… Read the rest
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Why farmers in the New Member States love the CAP

Jerzy Wilkin of Warsaw University in a recent paper has summarised the agricultural experience in the New Member States (NMS) under the CAP since they joined the EU in 2004. One of the points he highlights is the change in attitudes among farmers to the EU particularly in Poland, the largest of the New Member States. Although ex ante studies had suggested significant gains to agriculture as a result of accession, farmers were generally fearful and negative towards membership prior to 2004. Three years later, the situation is transformed. The share of Polish farmers supporting Poland’s accession to the EU has risen from 23% in 1999, to 38% in 2002, to 66% in 2003 and to 72% in 2005.… Read the rest

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Danish parliament unanimously calls for elimination of CAP support

Some Danish colleagues told me recently that the Danish Parliament on 30 May last unanimously passed a resolution requiring the Danish government to propose a strategy for how it would actively work for the elimination of EU agricultural support. The strategy should include a timeframe and plan of activities which should take into account the planned CAP Health Check in 2008 and the review of the EU budget in 2009. The strategy should be presented to Parliament before the end of 2007. … Read the rest

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Prospect for milk quota increases next year

The UK Farmers Guardian reports that Mrs Fischer Boel was forced to confirm that allowing an increase in milk production would be addressed as part of the Commission’s Health Check proposals expected in November after Germany raised concerns about rising retail prices. The Commission has a number of options, including an annual market-linked increase in quota, a reduction in superlevy, or the scrapping of restrictions on the transfer of quota between member states. A number of member states have already sought a quota increase. As I argued yesterday, increasing milk quota without at the same time sending a signal that current levels of dairy protection must be reduced by lowering support prices is likely to encourage farmers into an unsustainable increase in investment with considerable pain to follow when quotas are finally eliminated in 2015.… Read the rest

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Australian report raises queries on CAP reform

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has long been a consistent critic of the CAP. In its latest report The European Union’s Agricultural Policy: A Stocktake of Reforms it acknowledges the EU’s reform efforts to date, but highlights areas where more needs to be done. Its main conclusion is that, while the EU has been changing the form of its agricultural support policies toward ‘decoupled’ payments, very little has been done to reduce the level of support. In particular, substantial support and protection have been retained through tariffs and tariff quotas, and member states have retained some ‘coupled’ payments.… Read the rest

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Biofuels come to rescue of EU sugar market in medium-term

DG Agri published its annual Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU for the period 2007 through 2014 at the end of July. In this post I discuss the Commission’s latest view on the outlook for the EU sugar market. The EU’s sugar market reform agreed in November 2005 has been less than a thundering success in making progress towards its objective of reducing domestic production by 6 mio tonnes of white sugar annually. White sugar stocks remain high, and success in maintaining market balance through 2014 will depend on the quantity of imports realised under the EBA (Everything But Arms) scheme and the future take up of restructuring aid.… Read the rest

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Growth rates for global food demand set to fall

In a previous post, I discussed the significance of the current buoyant markets for dairy products for the likely success in pursuing further reform of the EU dairy regime. The insight that world market conditions may influence the trajectory of CAP reform can also be extended to other CAP regimes. Producers have not been as optimistic regarding long-run price trends for agricultural commodities for many years. Food demand prospects appear bright, driven by population growth and rising incomes in many emerging markets. Non-food demand, particularly for biofuels, is a further positive driver. Many believe that, after many false dawns, we really are on the cusp of reversing the long-run decline in real agricultural prices since the Second World War and entering a Malthusian world.… Read the rest

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Irish farmers now totally dependent on direct payments for their income

The dependence of Irish farm incomes on the Single Farm Payment and other direct payments was starkly revealed by the publication of the 2006 results of the annual National Farm Survey (NFS) this week. Fully 98% of Family Farm Income (FFI) on Irish farms in 2006 was derived from the Single Farm Payment and other direct payments; only 2% represented the return from the market, the lowest recorded since the Survey commenced. Market FFI per farm in 2006 was only €334. In 2004, 86% of Family Farm Income came from direct payments and subsidies, and 14% from the market place.… Read the rest