DG Agri published its annual Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU for the period 2007 through 2014 at the end of July. In this post I discuss the Commission’s latest view on the outlook for the EU sugar market. The EU’s sugar market reform agreed in November 2005 has been less than a thundering success in making progress towards its objective of reducing domestic production by 6 mio tonnes of white sugar annually. White sugar stocks remain high, and success in maintaining market balance through 2014 will depend on the quantity of imports realised under the EBA (Everything But Arms) scheme and the future take up of restructuring aid.… Read the rest
Growth rates for global food demand set to fall
In a previous post, I discussed the significance of the current buoyant markets for dairy products for the likely success in pursuing further reform of the EU dairy regime. The insight that world market conditions may influence the trajectory of CAP reform can also be extended to other CAP regimes. Producers have not been as optimistic regarding long-run price trends for agricultural commodities for many years. Food demand prospects appear bright, driven by population growth and rising incomes in many emerging markets. Non-food demand, particularly for biofuels, is a further positive driver. Many believe that, after many false dawns, we really are on the cusp of reversing the long-run decline in real agricultural prices since the Second World War and entering a Malthusian world.… Read the rest
Irish farmers now totally dependent on direct payments for their income
The dependence of Irish farm incomes on the Single Farm Payment and other direct payments was starkly revealed by the publication of the 2006 results of the annual National Farm Survey (NFS) this week. Fully 98% of Family Farm Income (FFI) on Irish farms in 2006 was derived from the Single Farm Payment and other direct payments; only 2% represented the return from the market, the lowest recorded since the Survey commenced. Market FFI per farm in 2006 was only €334. In 2004, 86% of Family Farm Income came from direct payments and subsidies, and 14% from the market place.… Read the rest
Set aside: act now, think later…
Following a Swedish proposal and widespread support in the Agriculture Council, the Commission announced the intention to set the level of compulsory set aside at 0% for the 2008 harvest. This is bad news for Europe’s wildlife and suggests a disappointing level of commitment to environmental sustainability on the side of the EU and its Member States. It also seems like a textbook case of ill conceived decision making. … Read the rest
Sad news
It is with great sadness that I report to readers of CAP Health Check the sudden and unexpected death of Secondo Tarditi, one of the agricultural policy experts contributing their thoughts to this blog. A fuller appreciation of Secondo’s life and his contribution to European agricultural economics will follow. In the mean time we express our sadness and extend our sympathies to Secondo’s family and friends who are mourning the loss of a talented, vivacious and charming man.… Read the rest
CAP policy instruments and policy goals: cause or effect?
Fellow blogger Wyn Grant presented a paper in Paris last month which presents a wide-ranging overview of the changes in CAP policy instruments since its inception to the present day. His basic thesis is that over time the instruments have changed much more than the objectives and that this does reflect a shift in the content of the CAP and its ultimate goals. He concludes that it is changes in CAP policy which have led to changes in policy instruments, although he does cite some examples where the introduction of new instruments, possibly by creating obvious anomalies, can spark off wider policy debates (trading SFP entitlements, voluntary modulation).… Read the rest
Musical chairs at the French Ministry for Agriculture
The surprise parliamentary election defeat last Sunday of Alain Juppé, a leading member of newly-appointed French cabinet has forced President Nicolas Sarkozy into an unplanned cabinet reshuffle. Newly appointed Agriculture Minister Christine Lagarde has been promoted to the post of Finance Minister. The resulting gap at the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishing has been filled by Michel Barnier, who until 2005 served as European Commissioner for regional policy.
Barnier is from the the Isère département of the Rhône-Alpes région where he served in local government in the 1970s and 1980s before entering national politics in the 1990s. Together with Jean-Claude Killy he organised the 1992 Winter Olympics in Albertville.… Read the rest
New French farm minister: a ray of hope for reform?
After Nicholas Sarkozy appeared to indicate that it was ‘business as usual’ in French agricultural policy, the appointment of Christine Lagarde as farm minister gives a ray of hope. Named as the 30th most powerful woman in the world by Forbes in 2006, she was formerly trade minister.
She was formerly chief of a big American law firm. Although she has been careful to say that agriculture would continue to have a ‘strategic’ role, Ms Lagarde also said that France could continue its position of ‘intransigence’ for ever. Perhaps she can use her skills as a synchronised swimming champion to move the debate on CAP forward.… Read the rest
UK Parliament slams the CAP
A report by the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs select committee of the UK Parliament has called for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy to be replaced by a new “Rural Policy for the EU”. While the committee of MPs, whose job is to shadow the work of the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), described the objectives of the CAP as ‘an anachronism’, it reserved its strongest criticism for the UK government itself, which is described as naive and impatient.… Read the rest
Butter mountain finally melts
The satisfied look of cows in the Azores is no great surprise as they receive one of the biggest cattle subsidies in the EU, although still not enough for Portugal who voted against the last CAP reform on the issue of the fate of dairy cows in the Atlantic islands. After 39 years of a butter mountain under the CAP, it has finally melted away. When the Soviet Union still existed, stocks of ‘ageing’ butter used to be sold off to its consumers who were glad to get any butter at all.
The last remaining stocks (in the Czech Republic, Finland and Spain) have been sold off.… Read the rest